As we all know, the main drive of Tesla Model 3 uses a full silicon carbide module, which opens the way for the mass application of silicon carbide. So far, Model 3 has sold nearly 1 million units worldwide and has been the global sales champion for three consecutive years, which is enough to prove that there are no problems in technology, industry and market when silicon carbide is used in cars. The superior performance of silicon carbide modules can increase the cruising range of the car by 5-10%, increase speed faster, charge faster and save more power (if equipped with silicon carbide OBC of the same structure), but the price is also more expensive. (The above are all comparisons with silicon devices)

The "onboarding" of silicon carbide is not an exclusive technology and application, because there is already a mature technology in the car - the big brother "silicon". Therefore, the "onboarding" of silicon carbide will inevitably lead to strong interception by "silicon". The specific "territory" of competition includes main inverter, OBC and DC/DC. Of course, other chip "territories" in the car, such as MCU, AI and CMOS image sensors and other information, intelligence, and control chips are still in the possession of "silicon" and no one can match them. Although silicon carbide has the above-mentioned superior properties, whether these are hard needs or pain points of consumers determines whether everyone is willing to pay for these benefits. This is actually a very sensitive market issue, which should be left to the market to resolve.

In addition, the automobile industry is a traditional industry, and automobile safety is a matter of "life and death". Therefore, the supply chain system has always been very rigorous and conservative, so it is very difficult to enter the OEM's qualified supplier directory. The associated technology, reliability and supply capability thresholds are very high, and the certification cycle is also very long. Electric vehicles were born out of the traditional automobile industry. Although they have the characteristics of an emerging industry, the above characteristics of high threshold and long certification cycle remain the same. The AEC-Q101 product certification and IATF16949 system certification that we often hear are just stepping stones to enter automotive applications, that is, the necessary minimum requirements. What is more stringent is the customer's certification.

Nowadays, in addition to the use of silicon carbide in one Tesla model, BYD also uses a full silicon carbide module main inverter in the BYD Han model. There are probably dozens of car companies using silicon carbide technology in OBC. However, the penetration rate of silicon carbide in the automotive power device market is only about 5%. Of course, it is now very Many device manufacturers, such as Wolfspeed, Infineon, Rohm, and ON Semiconductor, are all cooperating with Tier 1 or OEMs to make full and intensive preparations for silicon carbide to be "on the road", because after all, this is a future "big cake" worth tens of billions of dollars every year, and no one wants to miss it.

Based on the above reasons, silicon carbide's road to "getting on the market" will be long-lasting. Its market penetration rate depends on the decline in silicon carbide prices (the core is the decline in silicon carbide substrate prices). It is estimated that silicon carbide will dominate the automotive power device market by around 2030 or 2035. The market penetration rate will reach about 50%, so silicon carbide and silicon will coexist in cars for a long time. Silicon carbide will first be quickly spread on mid-to-high-end models that are not price-sensitive, and then enter the mid-to-low-end car market with the largest market capacity after the price drops to a certain level. A long penetration cycle is actually a good thing. It can give the industry more time to grow, and at the same time give "latecomers" more time and opportunities to catch up with the "pioneers". This is precisely the best situation for our domestic substitution.

On this car-standard track, who will ultimately win? I think the main points of competition are as follows:

Technology is king. The king technology is not the most advanced technology, but the best-used technology. Low-cost and high-performance technologies, such as crystal growth technology and packaging technology, especially need breakthroughs. One is about affordability, and the other is about using it well.

Management is the basis. Once it enters the OEM supply chain, its demand is considerable, and it must be supported by a large, reliable, stable and safe production capacity. Without a strict, advanced and mature management system, it may be difficult to be competent.

Cooperation is the soul, and the application of vehicle regulations has a high threshold and a long cycle. The core is that a strong and reliable trust relationship must be established between supply and demand. Only in this way can efficient communication, rapid problem solving, efficient technology iteration, and safe, reliable and cost-effective electric vehicles be created for customers. Therefore, a substrate epitaxy-device module-Tier1-OEM supply chain cooperation alliance should be established from the beginning to carry out in-depth practical cooperation and gradually establish a complete mutual trust relationship.

The road to "getting on the bus" with silicon carbide is long and long. Please wait and see who will have the last laugh.

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